United States – As per three people who are aware of the situation, the Air Force’s effort to replace its old nuclear missiles/warheads has skyrocketed in cost from USD 95.8 billion to over USD 160 billion.
The project, which is now being designed and overseen by Northrop Grumman Corp (NOC.N), is renamed the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) program with the goal of replacing the Minuteman III missiles, which are getting old, as reported by Reuters.
Cost Escalation and Impact
A U.S. official, an industry executive, and a legislative aide informed on the program’s newest cost estimate all stated that it had climbed by about USD 65 billion since the 2020 projection. According to another industry official, this notable increase might force the Pentagon to reduce the project’s scope or extend its schedule.
According to early Friday reports from Bloomberg, the Pentagon is evaluating changes to the construction and schedule, and the new cost is estimated to be around USD 141 billion.
Regarding this issue, Northrop Grumman declined to give a statement. The Pentagon didn’t provide a reaction to the figure, although it said it will release a new estimate for the cost before midweek, possibly on Tuesday.
Responses and Future Projections
It exceeds an increase to “at least” USD 131 billion that the Air Force revealed in January this year.
That prompted the Nunn-McCurdy Act, a piece of legislation passed in 1982 stating the Pentagon must explain to Congress why they needed a program for which the unit acquisition costs are above a certain baseline by more than 25%.
It is believed that Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin is going to provide that notification next week.
Strategic Importance and Alternatives
While Air Force insists that Sentinel is vital for preserving America’s nuclear monopoly, the Pentagon asked the industry to come up with cost estimates on (SLEP) for the existing Minuteman III warheads, as the documents shared with Reuters show, as reported by Reuters.
According to two of the sources, the improved estimations are hitting other Air Force priorities, such as the Next Generation Air Dominance fighter jet plan.
Others that may be affected include hypersonic weapon systems, B-21 stealth bombers, and other space activities.