Ron DeSantis’ route to victory in the Republican primary contest is now in jeopardy, and he faces funding issues moving forward after failing to deliver a breakthrough performance in Iowa on Monday, according to experts and sources familiar with his nomination campaign.
Strategic Misstep in Iowa Takes a Toll
Despite devoting much of his campaign’s time and resources to Iowa, the first state to hold a presidential nominating process, DeSantis ended nearly 30 points behind former President Donald Trump, narrowly defeating former US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley for second place.
Further Challenges
DeSantis appeared to be a major danger to Trump’s control of the Republican Party a year ago.
However, the Florida governor’s poll numbers have subsequently dropped, and he is particularly weak in certain other critical states as a result of his deliberate decision to devote the majority of his time and resources to Iowa.
That leaves him with no visible path to a comeback.
He now continues to New Hampshire, where he has spent little time in recent months and polls in third place behind Haley and Trump. The next nomination contest in the state will take place on Jan. 23.
DeSantis is also lagging Trump and Haley by significant amounts in South Carolina, which will host another important nominating contest in late February.
Trump’s Dominance
Kirk Jowers, a Republican presidential campaign veteran advising several significant DeSantis contributors this cycle, thought the game was finished.
“Iowa results confirm a compelling consensus that Trump will be the nominee, and there is nothing anyone can do about it absent an act of God or the courts,” Jowers said.
“Accordingly, there is no amount of funding or volunteer work that will lift DeSantis or Haley over Trump.”
Nonetheless, the stakes were highest for DeSantis, owing to flaws in his campaign strategy and that of his key outside Super PAC.
DeSantis’ Overemphasis on Iowa Criticized
DeSantis has devoted much of his efforts to Iowa. According to a calculation by ABC News and polling and analysis website 538, he had made 154 campaign stops there through Jan. 11, compared to only 32 in New Hampshire.
Haley, on the other hand, made 54 stops in New Hampshire and only 77 in Iowa.
Several people close to DeSantis or his team told Reuters recently that they thought Iowa’s conservative and religious population gave the governor the best chance of making a breakthrough.
He traveled to all 99 counties in Iowa and worked hard to gain the support of Governor Kim Reynolds.
While DeSantis’ campaign attempted to lower expectations in Iowa in recent weeks, funders and advisers to the governor privately stated that he needed to greatly beat expectations to keep a clear path forward.
One reason for the haste, they added, was to build momentum heading into New Hampshire.
New Hampshire’s Moderate Landscape Unfavorable to DeSantis
DeSantis’ ultra-conservative, Trump-adjacent persona, which he anticipated would appeal to Iowa’s rural farmers and Evangelicals, has been difficult to sell in New Hampshire, which has a long history of moderate Republicanism and leans left on social issues.
According to an aggregation of surveys collected by 538, DeSantis has 5.8% support in New Hampshire, while Trump has approximately 43%, and Haley has 30% of prospective primary voters.
“They made a strategic decision some months ago that Iowa would be more fertile territory for them. That meant less time in New Hampshire, less resources spent in New Hampshire,” said Jim Merrill, a veteran Republican strategist in New Hampshire.
“I think that New Hampshire wasn’t a natural fit for him,” he added.
When questioned about the next steps, one person working for the DeSantis nomination campaign said the governor would most likely have difficulty funding his campaign, though he did not imply there was an urgent cash emergency.
“I don’t think the money will be inspired,” he said, requesting anonymity as he was not permitted to speak to the media.
Meanwhile, some of the governor’s loyalists expressed optimism, and the governor promised to fight on at a rally in West Des Moines on Monday night.
And, while the night was not a success for DeSantis, it could have been worse: most recent polls had him finishing third.
Campaign Funding Assurance until super Tuesday
Roy Bailey, one of DeSantis’ top fundraisers, said the campaign had the funding to continue at least until Super Tuesday when a series of Republican primary elections will be held on the same day in early March.
“He’s going all the way,” Bailey said. “He got his ticket out of here.”
DeSantis, who was formerly regarded as Republicans’ greatest chance of succeeding Trump, finished with around 21% of the vote in Iowa, defeating Haley, who received 19% of the votes.
Trump got the backing of more than half of caucus attendees, a dominant performance that prevented DeSantis and Haley from credibly declaring victory.